|
In technical analysis of securities trading, the stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator that uses support and resistance levels. Dr. George Lane developed this indicator in the late 1950s.〔(【引用サイトリンク】)">url=http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stochastic_oscillator_fast_slow_and_full )〕 The term ''stochastic'' refers to the point of a current price in relation to its price range over a period of time.〔Murphy, John J. (1999). "(John Murphy's Ten Laws of Technical Trading )".〕 This method attempts to predict price turning points by comparing the closing price of a security to its price range. The indicator is defined as follows: : : %D is the 3-day moving average of %K (the last 3 values of %K). Usually this is a simple moving average, but can be an exponential moving average for a less standardized weighting for more recent values. There is only one valid signal in working with %D alone — a divergence between %D and the analyzed security.〔Lane, George M.D. (May/June 1984) “Lane’s Stochastics,” second issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine. pp 87-90.〕 == Definition == The calculation above finds the range between an asset’s high and low price during a given period of time. The current security's price is then expressed as a percentage of this range with 0% indicating the bottom of the range and 100% indicating the upper limits of the range over the time period covered. The idea behind this indicator is that prices tend to close near the extremes of the recent range before turning points. The Stochastic oscillator is calculated: ::''Where'' ::: is the last closing price ::: is the lowest price over the last N periods ::: is the highest price over the last N periods ::: is a 3-period simple moving average of %K, . ::: is a 3-period simple moving average of %D, . A 3-line Stochastics will give an anticipatory signal in %K, a signal in the turnaround of %D at or before a bottom, and a confirmation of the turnaround in %D-Slow.〔Lane, George C. & Caire (1998) "Getting Started With Stochastics" pg 3〕 Typical values for ''N'' are 5, 9, or 14 periods. Smoothing the indicator over 3 periods is standard. Dr. George Lane, a financial analyst, is one of the first to publish on the use of stochastic oscillators to forecast prices. According to Lane, the Stochastics indicator is to be used with cycles, Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement for timing. In low margin, calendar futures spreads, one might use Wilders parabolic as a trailing stop after a stochastics entry. A centerpiece of his teaching is the divergence and convergence of trendlines drawn on stochastics, as diverging/converging to trendlines drawn on price cycles. Stochastics predicts tops and bottoms. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「stochastic oscillator」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
|